A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
